Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Sligo Rovers: Result & Stats

Shamrock Rovers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sligo Rovers

A. Greene 42'

G. Burke 26' (pen)

5/5/2025

Premier Division · Round 14Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Shamrock Rovers59%

×Draw23%

Sligo Rovers18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shamrock RoversExpected goals in this matchSligo Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.88

Shamrock Rovers

1.79

Sligo Rovers

0.88

Shamrock Rovers creates 103% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 129 away

1.98

creates per match

1.04

0.71

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers

1.98

Sligo Rovers

1.04

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers

0.71

Sligo Rovers

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par

Sligo Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Sligo Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw

82%

Shamrock Rovers or Sligo Rovers

77%

Draw or Sligo Rovers

41%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

34%

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

83%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

53%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

26%

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals

59%

Sligo Rovers 2+ goals

22%

Sligo Rovers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

76%

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.71 · 129 matches

Sligo Rovers away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.98 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sligo Rovers attack 1.04 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more

59%

level

23%

Sligo Rovers scores more

18%

Shamrock Rovers at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Burke

Shamrock Rovers · F

8.9

Match Events

18'

John Mahon

26'

G. BurkePenalty

41'

Matthew Healy

42'

A. Greene↳ G. Burke

46'

Lee Grace

46'

C. Kavanagh← J. Hakiki

68'

M. Noonan← J. Byrne

68'

G. O'Neill← M. Healy

68'

J. O'Sullivan← G. Burke

77'

H. Lintott← C. Reynolds

77'

D. Patton← M. Wolfe

77'

W. Waweru← F. Lomboto

83'

R. Gaffney← A. Greene

83'

V. Ozhianvuna← D. Grant

83'

S. Mallon←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShamrockSligo

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots10

7Corners5

15Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots10

7On Target3

4Off Target6

6Blocked1

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

580Total Passes327

519Accurate Passes265

89%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1