Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Derry City: Result & Stats

Shamrock Rovers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Derry City

R. Gaffney 65', 47'

8/3/2025

Premier Division · Round 26Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shamrock Rovers51%

×Draw26%

Derry City22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shamrock RoversExpected goals in this matchDerry City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.90

Shamrock Rovers

1.51

Derry City

0.90

Shamrock Rovers creates 68% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.83

creates per match

1.10

0.70

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers

1.83

Derry City

1.10

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers

0.70

Derry City

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par

Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Derry City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw

78%

Shamrock Rovers or Derry City

74%

Draw or Derry City

49%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

26%

Derry City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

78%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

44%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Derry City 1+ goals

59%

Derry City 2+ goals

23%

Derry City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

70%

Derry City (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.70 · 30 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.83 + Derry City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.51

Derry City attack 1.10 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more

51%

level

26%

Derry City scores more

22%

Shamrock Rovers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Gaffney

Shamrock Rovers · F

8.3

Match Events

25'

Joshua Honohan

46'

C. Malley← A. McEneff

47'

R. Gaffney↳ J. Honohan

49'

Liam Boyce

58'

Alex Bannon

63'

G. Whyte← L. Boyce

63'

D. Mullen← D. Akinyemi

65'

R. Gaffney

66'

Roberto Lopes

69'

M. Noonan← R. Gaffney

74'

A. Matthews← D. Mandroiu

74'

J. McGovern← D. Grant

78'

79'

79'

85'

85'

86'

C. O'Sullivan← D. Cleary

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShamrockDerry

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots7

1Corners3

14Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target3

7Off Target3

1Blocked1

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

504Total Passes454

434Accurate Passes384

86%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

7Offsides2