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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2019

Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
4/22/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk61%
×Draw21%
Zorya Luhansk18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk
2.08
Zorya Luhansk
1.05

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 98% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
2.31
Zorya Luhansk
1.44

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
0.67
Zorya Luhansk
1.86

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.69scores more
Zorya Luhansk+0.10scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw
82%
Shakhtar Donetsk or Zorya Luhansk
79%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
39%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
37%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
87%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
61%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
34%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
65%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
28%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
77%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.86 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.31 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.08

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.44 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
61%
level
21%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
18%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 Zorya Luhansk

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Zorya Luhansk 2-1 in Premier League on April 22, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Lviv in Lviv.