Shakhtar Donetsk 2–2 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zorya Luhansk

V. Bondar 63'

A. Bondarenko 13'

S. Buletsa 46'

I. Kyryukhantsev 45'

11/13/2022

Premier League · Round 13Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk61%

×Draw21%

Zorya Luhansk18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.03

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.08

Zorya Luhansk

1.03

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 102% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

2.31

creates per match

1.39

0.67

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.31

Zorya Luhansk

1.39

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.67

Zorya Luhansk

1.85

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.69scores more

Zorya Luhansk+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

82%

Shakhtar Donetsk or Zorya Luhansk

79%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

39%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

38%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

87%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

61%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

34%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

64%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

28%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

77%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.31 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.08

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.39 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

61%

level

21%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

18%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. Bondarenko↳ L. Traoré

44'

Lassina Traoré

45'

I. Kyryukhantsev

46'

E. Nazaryna← D. Kryskiv

46'

D. Sikan← L. Traoré

46'

S. Buletsa↳ I. Kyryukhantsev

60'

N. Rusyn← M. Lunev

62'

Mykhaylo Mudryk

63'

V. Bondar↳ M. Mudryk

70'

D. Antyukh← S. Buletsa

70'

I. Snurnitsyn← R. Vantukh

81'

A. Alibekov← I. Kyryukhantsev

81'

M. Mykhaylenko← D. Myshnov

84'

I. Petryak← T. Stepanenko

84'

Lucas Taylor← S. Kryvtsov

Shots

Statistics

ShakhtarZorya

Overview

6Total Shots3

8Corners4

7Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots3

2On Target2

4Off Target1

Discipline

7Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk

Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 13, 2022.

Goals: A. Bondarenko (13'), I. Kyryukhantsev (45'), S. Buletsa (46'), V. Bondar (63').

The match was played at Arena L'viv in L'viv.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk