Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Oleksandria

V. Kornienko 15'

K. Kovalets 21'

M. Tretyakov 6'

8/7/2021

Premier League · Round 3NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk56%

×Draw23%

Oleksandria21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.98

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.79

Oleksandria

0.98

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.36

creates per match

1.23

0.73

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.36

Oleksandria

1.23

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.73

Oleksandria

1.22

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.37scores more

Oleksandria-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

79%

Shakhtar Donetsk or Oleksandria

77%

Draw or Oleksandria

44%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

32%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

83%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

53%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

26%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

62%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

26%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

73%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.36 + Oleksandria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Oleksandria attack 1.23 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

56%

level

23%

Oleksandria scores more

21%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Tretyakov↳ A. Tsurikov

15'

V. Kornienko↳ Dodô

21'

K. Kovalets↳ A. Tsurikov

46'

L. Traoré← Dentinho

46'

H. Sudakov← M. Mudryk

61'

A. Novikov← C. Spinelli

62'

Pedrinho← Marlos

66'

Tetê← Alan Patrick

68'

T. Stetskov← V. Odaryuk

75'

S. Rybalka← Y. Kopyna

77'

Marcos Antonio← V. Kornienko

80'

Marcos Antonio

90+5'

Sergiy Rybalka

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ShakhtarOleksandria

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots6

5Corners2

10Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots6

6On Target2

6Off Target4

Passing

64%Possession36%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1