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SFS Borac vs Vlasina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
3 – 3
Vlasina
Vlasina
10/7/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

SFS Borac50%
×Draw23%
Vlasina27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
1.88
Vlasina
1.32

SFS Borac creates 42% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 101 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Vlasina
1.40

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Vlasina
1.72

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Vlasina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
73%
SFS Borac or Vlasina
77%
Draw or Vlasina
50%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
28%
Vlasina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
85%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
56%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
29%
Vlasina 1+ goals
73%
Vlasina 2+ goals
38%
Vlasina 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
65%
Vlasina (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vlasina attack 1.40 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SFS Borac scores more
50%
level
23%
Vlasina scores more
27%

SFS Borac at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: SFS Borac 3–3 Vlasina

SFS Borac and Vlasina drew 3-3 in Srpska Liga - East on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.