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Sfera U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sfera U20
Sfera U20
Preview
18:00
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
8/11/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 11
48%
Sfera U20
model favours
48%24%28%

Both teams score in only 32% of Sfera U20’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sfera U2048%
×Draw24%
Gremio Prudente U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfera U20
1.75
Gremio Prudente U20
1.28

Sfera U20 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sfera U20
2.25
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

Sfera U20
1.19
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

Sfera U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfera U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sfera U20 or draw
72%
Sfera U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
76%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
52%

Winning margin

Sfera U20 wins by 2+
26%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sfera U20 1+ goals
83%
Sfera U20 2+ goals
52%
Sfera U20 3+ goals
25%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
72%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
37%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sfera U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfera U20 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfera U20 attack 2.25 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.75

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + Sfera U20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sfera U20 scores more
48%
level
24%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
28%

Sfera U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sfera U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sfera U20 and Gremio Prudente U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LWWLW
U20
DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sfera U20 face Gremio Prudente U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Sfera U20 hosting Gremio Prudente U20. Match starts August 11, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.