SFC Minerva 1–0 UCAM Murcia II: Result & Stats

SFC Minerva

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UCAM Murcia II

12/6/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SFC Minerva35%

×Draw28%

UCAM Murcia II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SFC MinervaExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.21

SFC Minerva

1.18

UCAM Murcia II

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 110 away

1.22

creates per match

1.33

1.08

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

SFC Minerva

1.22

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

SFC Minerva

1.08

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw

63%

SFC Minerva or UCAM Murcia II

72%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

65%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+

15%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals

69%

SFC Minerva 2+ goals

33%

SFC Minerva 3+ goals

12%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

70%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

34%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)

49%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

SFC Minerva scores more

35%

level

28%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

37%

UCAM Murcia II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFC Minerva vs UCAM Murcia II

SFC Minerva beat UCAM Murcia II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.

SFC Minerva vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: SFC Minerva vs UCAM Murcia II