SfB-Oure 2–1 Næsby: Result & Stats

SfB-Oure

FT

2 – 1

Næsby

Rosenbaum F 46'

A. Mads 15'

C. Hermansen 76'

9/5/2020

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Høje Bøge Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SfB-Oure27%

×Draw20%

Næsby53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SfB-OureExpected goals in this matchNæsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.38

SfB-Oure

1.69

Næsby

2.38

Næsby creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.46

creates per match

1.62

3.15

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

SfB-Oure

1.46

Næsby

1.62

allows per match

SfB-Oure

3.15

Næsby

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SfB-Oure+0.00on par

Næsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SfB-Oure ↓

Næsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

SfB-Oure or draw

47%

SfB-Oure or Næsby

80%

Draw or Næsby

73%

Winning margin

SfB-Oure wins by 2+

13%

Næsby wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

SfB-Oure 1+ goals

82%

SfB-Oure 2+ goals

50%

SfB-Oure 3+ goals

24%

Næsby 1+ goals

91%

Næsby 2+ goals

68%

Næsby 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

SfB-Oure (draw refunded)

34%

Næsby (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SfB-Oure at home — creates 1.46, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Næsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SfB-Oure attack 1.46 + Næsby defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Næsby attack 1.62 + SfB-Oure defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SfB-Oure scores more

27%

level

20%

Næsby scores more

53%

Næsby at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Mads

46'

Rosenbaum F

76'

C. Hermansen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff