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SfB-Oure vs Holstebro — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

SfB-Oure
SfB-Oure
FT
3 – 2
Holstebro
Holstebro
4/17/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19S.f.B. Hellegårdsvej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SfB-Oure35%
×Draw21%
Holstebro44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SfB-Oure
1.77
Holstebro
2.00

Holstebro creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

SfB-Oure
1.46
Holstebro
0.85

allows per match

SfB-Oure
3.15
Holstebro
2.08

finishing

SfB-Oure+0.00on par
Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SfB-Oure ↓

Holstebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SfB-Oure or draw
56%
SfB-Oure or Holstebro
79%
Draw or Holstebro
65%

Winning margin

SfB-Oure wins by 2+
18%
Holstebro wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SfB-Oure 1+ goals
83%
SfB-Oure 2+ goals
53%
SfB-Oure 3+ goals
26%
Holstebro 1+ goals
86%
Holstebro 2+ goals
59%
Holstebro 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

SfB-Oure (draw refunded)
44%
Holstebro (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SfB-Oure at home — creates 1.46, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Holstebro away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SfB-Oure attack 1.46 + Holstebro defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Holstebro attack 0.85 + SfB-Oure defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SfB-Oure scores more
35%
level
21%
Holstebro scores more
44%

Holstebro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: SfB-Oure 3–2 Holstebro

SfB-Oure beat Holstebro 3-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at S.f.B. Hellegårdsvej in Svendborg.