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SF Glens vs Golden State Force — USL League Two 2018

SF Glens
SF Glens
PST
20:00
Golden State Force
Golden State Force
5/31/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 17Skyline College Soccer Field (San Bruno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SF Glens60%
×Draw22%
Golden State Force18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Glens
1.93
Golden State Force
0.96

SF Glens creates 101% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

creates per match

SF Glens
2.00
Golden State Force
0.86

allows per match

SF Glens
1.05
Golden State Force
1.86

finishing

SF Glens+0.00on par
Golden State Force+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Glens ↓

Golden State Force →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SF Glens or draw
82%
SF Glens or Golden State Force
78%
Draw or Golden State Force
40%

Winning margin

SF Glens wins by 2+
36%
Golden State Force wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SF Glens 1+ goals
85%
SF Glens 2+ goals
57%
SF Glens 3+ goals
30%
Golden State Force 1+ goals
62%
Golden State Force 2+ goals
25%
Golden State Force 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SF Glens (draw refunded)
77%
Golden State Force (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Glens at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.05 · 37 matches

Golden State Force away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Glens attack 2.00 + Golden State Force defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Golden State Force attack 0.86 + SF Glens defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SF Glens scores more
60%
level
22%
Golden State Force scores more
18%

SF Glens at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SF Glens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SF Glens face Golden State Force (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with SF Glens hosting Golden State Force. Match starts May 31, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SF Glens host Golden State Force at Skyline College Soccer Field (San Bruno, California).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.