Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sevlievo vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
2 – 0
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
9/15/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 6Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Sevlievo73%
×Draw17%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
2.42
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.81

Sevlievo creates 199% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
89%
Sevlievo or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
83%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
27%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
50%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
91%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
69%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
43%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
19%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
87%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.42

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sevlievo scores more
73%
level
17%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
11%

Sevlievo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevlievo vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Sevlievo beat Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sevlievo.