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Sevilla W vs Valencia W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
Preview
16:00
Valencia W
Valencia W
1/10/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 15Estadio Jesus Navas
Big match
50%
Sevilla W
model favours
50%24%26%

Valencia W win just 13% against the top half (vs 40% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Sevilla W50%
×Draw24%
Valencia W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.75
Valencia W
1.19

Sevilla W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
Valencia W
0.94

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
Valencia W
1.91

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
Valencia W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Valencia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
74%
Sevilla W or Valencia W
76%
Draw or Valencia W
50%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
27%
Valencia W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
83%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
52%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
25%
Valencia W 1+ goals
70%
Valencia W 2+ goals
33%
Valencia W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
66%
Valencia W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Valencia W away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Valencia W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Valencia W attack 0.94 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sevilla W scores more
50%
level
24%
Valencia W scores more
26%

Sevilla W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sevilla W
Balanced
Valencia W
Balanced
46%Possession48%
72%Pass accuracy73%
10.7ShotsBiggest gap10.1
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sevilla WValencia W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Sevilla W
1
Draws
3
Valencia W
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 70%
3–13–11–31–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DDLLL
W
DDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevilla W face Valencia W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Sevilla W hosting Valencia W. Match starts January 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sevilla W host Valencia W at Estadio Jesus Navas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.