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Sevilla W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
Preview
15:00
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
5/23/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 30Estadio Jesus Navas
Big match
39%
Real Sociedad W
model favours
37%24%39%

Sevilla W win just 16% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Sevilla W37%
×Draw24%
Real Sociedad W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.52
Real Sociedad W
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
61%
Sevilla W or Real Sociedad W
76%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
63%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
18%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
78%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
45%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
20%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
79%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
46%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
49%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sevilla W scores more
37%
level
24%
Real Sociedad W scores more
39%

Real Sociedad W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Real Sociedad W win just 24% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sevilla W
Balanced
Real Sociedad W
Balanced
48%Possession52%
73%Pass accuracy78%
10.7ShotsBiggest gap11.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sevilla WReal Sociedad W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Sevilla W
2
Draws
4
Real Sociedad W
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 50%
0–20–30–03–24–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DDLLL
W
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sevilla W host Real Sociedad W

May 23, 2027: Sevilla W take on Real Sociedad W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sevilla W host Real Sociedad W at Estadio Jesus Navas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.