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Sevilla W vs Granada — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
Preview
16:00
Granada
Granada
12/9/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 13Estadio Jesus Navas
Big match
45%
Sevilla W
model favours
45%24%31%

Sevilla W win just 16% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sevilla W45%
×Draw24%
Granada31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.65
Granada
1.34

Sevilla W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
Granada
1.24

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
Granada
1.71

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Granada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
69%
Sevilla W or Granada
76%
Draw or Granada
55%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
23%
Granada wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
81%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
49%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
23%
Granada 1+ goals
74%
Granada 2+ goals
39%
Granada 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
59%
Granada (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Granada attack 1.24 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sevilla W scores more
45%
level
24%
Granada scores more
31%

Sevilla W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Granada win just 18% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sevilla W
Balanced
Granada
Balanced
48%Possession50%
72%Pass accuracy72%
10.2ShotsBiggest gap13.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sevilla WGranada

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Sevilla W
1
Draws
3
Granada
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 17%
0–12–00–20–32–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DDLLL
Granada
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sevilla W host Granada

December 9, 2026: Sevilla W take on Granada in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sevilla W host Granada at Estadio Jesus Navas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.