Sevilla W 1–0 Granada: Result & Stats

Sevilla W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Granada

Cristina Martín-Prieto 68'

11/12/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 8Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sevilla W45%

×Draw24%

Granada31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla WExpected goals in this matchGranada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.34

Sevilla W

1.65

Granada

1.34

Sevilla W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 45 away

1.59

creates per match

1.24

1.45

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sevilla W

1.59

Granada

1.24

allows per match

Sevilla W

1.45

Granada

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par

Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Granada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw

69%

Sevilla W or Granada

76%

Draw or Granada

55%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+

23%

Granada wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals

81%

Sevilla W 2+ goals

49%

Sevilla W 3+ goals

23%

Granada 1+ goals

74%

Granada 2+ goals

39%

Granada 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)

59%

Granada (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Granada attack 1.24 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sevilla W scores more

45%

level

24%

Granada scores more

31%

Sevilla W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Esther Sullastres

Sevilla W · G

7.7

Match Events

54'

E. Imade← Naima García

54'

Ornella Vignola← Ariadna Mingueza

60'

Rosa Otermin← Lucía Rodríguez

60'

K. Cahynová← María Pérez

68'

Cristina Martín-Prieto

74'

Cristina Martín-Prieto

74'

Laura Pérez← Alba Pérez

74'

Natalia Fernández← Carlota Suárez

85'

Gemma Gili← T. Payne

90+5'

Lucía Martínez González

90'

Marta Carrasco

90+2'

Diana Gomes← Amanda Sampedro

90+2'

Arola Aparicio← Teresa Merida

90+5'

Andrea Gómez← Lauri Requena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SevillaGranada

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots9

4Corners1

5Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots9

3On Target3

4Off Target6

1Blocked0

5Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

415Total Passes309

333Accurate Passes214

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1