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Sevilla W vs Granad. Tenerife W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
Preview
16:00
Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
3/14/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 22Estadio Jesus Navas
Big match
43%
Sevilla W
model favours
43%25%32%

Granad. Tenerife W have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sevilla W43%
×Draw25%
Granad. Tenerife W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.58
Granad. Tenerife W
1.33

Sevilla W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 117 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
Granad. Tenerife W
1.21

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
Granad. Tenerife W
1.58

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Granad. Tenerife W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
68%
Sevilla W or Granad. Tenerife W
75%
Draw or Granad. Tenerife W
57%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
22%
Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
79%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
47%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
21%
Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
74%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
38%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
57%
Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Granad. Tenerife W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.21 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sevilla W scores more
43%
level
25%
Granad. Tenerife W scores more
32%

Sevilla W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sevilla W win just 16% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)
  • Granad. Tenerife W win just 25% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sevilla W
Balanced
Granad. Tenerife W
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession43%
73%Pass accuracy68%
10.7ShotsBiggest gap12.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sevilla WGranad. Tenerife W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Sevilla W
1
Draws
8
Granad. Tenerife W
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 50%
0–30–40–21–40–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DDLLL
W
WDLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sevilla W host Granad. Tenerife W

March 14, 2027: Sevilla W take on Granad. Tenerife W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sevilla W host Granad. Tenerife W at Estadio Jesus Navas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.