Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sevilla W vs Granad. Tenerife W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
12/22/2021Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 15Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sevilla W43%
×Draw25%
Granad. Tenerife W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.58
Granad. Tenerife W
1.33

Sevilla W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 117 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
Granad. Tenerife W
1.21

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
Granad. Tenerife W
1.58

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Granad. Tenerife W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
68%
Sevilla W or Granad. Tenerife W
75%
Draw or Granad. Tenerife W
57%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
22%
Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
79%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
47%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
21%
Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
74%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
38%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
57%
Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Granad. Tenerife W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.21 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sevilla W scores more
43%
level
25%
Granad. Tenerife W scores more
32%

Sevilla W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevilla W vs Granad. Tenerife W

Granad. Tenerife W beat Sevilla W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.