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Sevilla W vs FC Levante Badalona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Levante Badalona W
FC Levante Badalona W
11/6/2022Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 8Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sevilla W51%
×Draw23%
FC Levante Badalona W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.77
FC Levante Badalona W
1.17

Sevilla W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
FC Levante Badalona W
0.88

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
FC Levante Badalona W
1.95

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

FC Levante Badalona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
75%
Sevilla W or FC Levante Badalona W
77%
Draw or FC Levante Badalona W
49%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
28%
FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
83%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
53%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
26%
FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals
69%
FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals
33%
FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
67%
FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

FC Levante Badalona W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC Levante Badalona W attack 0.88 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sevilla W scores more
51%
level
23%
FC Levante Badalona W scores more
25%

Sevilla W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevilla W vs FC Levante Badalona W

Sevilla W beat FC Levante Badalona W 5-0 in Primera División Femenina on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.