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Sevilla W vs Espanyol W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
Preview
15:00
Espanyol W
Espanyol W
4/11/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 26Estadio Jesus Navas
Big match
50%
Sevilla W
model favours
50%24%26%
1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sevilla W50%
×Draw24%
Espanyol W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.68
Espanyol W
1.13

Sevilla W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 75 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
Espanyol W
0.80

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
Espanyol W
1.77

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
Espanyol W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Espanyol W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
74%
Sevilla W or Espanyol W
76%
Draw or Espanyol W
50%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
27%
Espanyol W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
81%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
50%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
24%
Espanyol W 1+ goals
68%
Espanyol W 2+ goals
31%
Espanyol W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
66%
Espanyol W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Espanyol W away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.77 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Espanyol W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68

Espanyol W attack 0.80 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sevilla W scores more
50%
level
24%
Espanyol W scores more
26%

Sevilla W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
DDLLL
W
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevilla W face Espanyol W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Sevilla W hosting Espanyol W. Match starts April 11, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sevilla W host Espanyol W at Estadio Jesus Navas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.