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Sevilla W vs Eibar W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
Preview
15:00
Eibar W
Eibar W
9/27/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 5Estadio Jesus Navas
Big match
51%
Sevilla W
model favours
51%24%25%

Eibar W win just 11% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sevilla W51%
×Draw24%
Eibar W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.68
Eibar W
1.11

Sevilla W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
Eibar W
0.78

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
Eibar W
1.77

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
Eibar W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Eibar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
75%
Sevilla W or Eibar W
76%
Draw or Eibar W
49%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
27%
Eibar W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
81%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
50%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
24%
Eibar W 1+ goals
67%
Eibar W 2+ goals
30%
Eibar W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
67%
Eibar W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Eibar W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Eibar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68

Eibar W attack 0.78 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sevilla W scores more
51%
level
24%
Eibar W scores more
25%

Sevilla W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sevilla W
Balanced
Eibar W
Direct / counter-attacking
48%PossessionBiggest gap31%
72%Pass accuracy55%
10.2Shots7.6
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sevilla WEibar W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Sevilla W
1
Draws
4
Eibar W
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 40%
0–01–01–33–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DDLLL
W
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevilla W face Eibar W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Sevilla W hosting Eibar W. Match starts September 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sevilla W host Eibar W at Estadio Jesus Navas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.