Sevilla W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W

Sevilla W

Preview

16:00

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1/24/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 17Estadio Jesus Navas

Big match

52%

Sevilla W

model favours

52%22%26%

Sevilla W have won 5 of the last 7 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

64%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sevilla W52%

×Draw22%

Deportivo de La Coruña W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo de La Coruña W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.33

Sevilla W

1.96

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.33

Sevilla W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 59 away

1.59

creates per match

1.22

1.45

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Sevilla W

1.59

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.22

allows per match

Sevilla W

1.45

Deportivo de La Coruña W

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Deportivo de La Coruña W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw

74%

Sevilla W or Deportivo de La Coruña W

78%

Draw or Deportivo de La Coruña W

48%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+

30%

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals

86%

Sevilla W 2+ goals

58%

Sevilla W 3+ goals

31%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)

67%

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.96

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.22 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sevilla W scores more

52%

level

22%

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more

26%

Sevilla W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportivo de La Coruña W win just 11% against the top half (vs 46% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

DDLLL

W

LDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff