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Sevilla W vs Atletico Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
1/19/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 17Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Sevilla W30%
×Draw24%
Atletico Madrid W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.31
Atletico Madrid W
1.69

Atletico Madrid W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
Atletico Madrid W
1.92

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
Atletico Madrid W
1.02

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
54%
Sevilla W or Atletico Madrid W
76%
Draw or Atletico Madrid W
70%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
13%
Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
73%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
38%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
50%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
39%
Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.92 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sevilla W scores more
30%
level
24%
Atletico Madrid W scores more
46%

Atletico Madrid W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Sevilla W 2–2 Atletico Madrid W

Sevilla W and Atletico Madrid W drew 2-2 in Primera División Femenina on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.