Sevilla W vs Athletic Club W: Preview & Prediction

Sevilla W

Preview

15:00

Athletic Club W

4/4/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 25Estadio Jesus Navas

Big match

43%

Sevilla W

model favours

43%25%32%

Sevilla W win just 16% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Sevilla W43%

×Draw25%

Athletic Club W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla WExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.33

Sevilla W

1.57

Athletic Club W

1.33

Sevilla W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

1.59

creates per match

1.21

1.45

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sevilla W

1.59

Athletic Club W

1.21

allows per match

Sevilla W

1.45

Athletic Club W

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Athletic Club W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw

68%

Sevilla W or Athletic Club W

75%

Draw or Athletic Club W

57%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+

22%

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals

79%

Sevilla W 2+ goals

46%

Sevilla W 3+ goals

21%

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

74%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

38%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)

57%

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sevilla W scores more

43%

level

25%

Athletic Club W scores more

32%

Sevilla W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Athletic Club W win just 28% against the top half (vs 60% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Sevilla W

Balanced

Athletic Club W

Balanced

48%Possession52%

73%Pass accuracy79%

10.7ShotsBiggest gap8.8

—xG—

Sevilla WAthletic Club W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3

Sevilla W

5

Draws

2

Athletic Club W

Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 70%

4–01–11–02–51–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

DDLLL

W

WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevilla W vs Athletic Club W — Match Preview

Sevilla W face Athletic Club W on April 4, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sevilla W host Athletic Club W at Estadio Jesus Navas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Sevilla W vs Athletic Club W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Sevilla W vs Athletic Club W — Match Preview