Sevilla 1–0 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Sevilla

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levante

10/1/2020

La Liga · Round 4Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Sevilla43%

×Draw26%

Levante31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SevillaExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.20

Sevilla

1.46

Levante

1.20

Sevilla creates 22% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 19 away

1.20

creates per match

1.18

1.22

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sevilla

1.20

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Sevilla

1.22

Levante

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Sevilla+0.00on par

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sevilla or draw

69%

Sevilla or Levante

74%

Draw or Levante

57%

Winning margin

Sevilla wins by 2+

21%

Levante wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sevilla 1+ goals

77%

Sevilla 2+ goals

43%

Sevilla 3+ goals

18%

Levante 1+ goals

70%

Levante 2+ goals

34%

Levante 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sevilla (draw refunded)

58%

Levante (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 40 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla attack 1.20 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Levante attack 1.18 + Sevilla defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sevilla scores more

43%

level

26%

Levante scores more

31%

Sevilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sevilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff