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Sevilla III vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Sevilla III
Sevilla III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Cristóbal Moreno 48'
11/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sevilla III49%
×Draw27%
La Palma24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla III
1.44
La Palma
0.92

Sevilla III creates 57% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 48 away

creates per match

Sevilla III
1.22
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Sevilla III
0.96
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw
76%
Sevilla III or La Palma
73%
Draw or La Palma
51%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+
24%
La Palma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals
76%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
42%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
18%
La Palma 1+ goals
60%
La Palma 2+ goals
23%
La Palma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)
67%
La Palma (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

La Palma attack 0.88 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sevilla III scores more
49%
level
27%
La Palma scores more
24%

Sevilla III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Pavón← Jaime López
48'
Cristóbal Moreno
56'
Galleti← Mazin
56'
Carlitos← Nené
63'
Diego Rodríguez← Ilies Hassaine
68'
José Arias← Diego Domínguez
77'
Carlos Martínez← Manolo Suárez
80'
Álvaro Durán← Juanma Bernal
Sevilla
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Diego Domínguez
▼
Domínguez
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Manolo Suárez
▼
Suárez
Nené
▼
Nené
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Paco
Paco
Mario de Iraola
Iraola
Alvarito
Alvarito
Manu Cruzado
Cruzado
Mazin
▼
Mazin
Lolo Cortés
Cortés
Marcos Otero
Otero
Juanmi García
García
Carlos Calero
Calero
Cristóbal Moreno
⚽
Moreno
Jaime López
▼
López
Juaniyo Gómez
Gómez
Juanma Bernal
▼
Bernal
Ilies Hassaine
▼
Hassaine
Miguel Jiménez
Jiménez
Alberto Abascal
Abascal
Lolo Rosano
Manager: Lolo Rosano
46'▲Pavón←▼Jaime López
63'▲Diego Rodríguez←▼Ilies Hassaine
80'▲Álvaro Durán←▼Juanma Bernal

Sevilla III substitutes

PavónRodríguezDurán
Mario Rodriguez
Manager: Mario Rodriguez
56'▲Galleti←▼Mazin
56'▲Carlitos←▼Nené
68'▲José Arias←▼Diego Domínguez
77'▲Carlos Martínez←▼Manolo Suárez

La Palma substitutes

GalletiCarlitosAriasMartínez

Sevilla III 1 – 0 La Palma

Sevilla III beat La Palma 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 19, 2020.

Goals: Cristóbal Moreno (48').

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.