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Sevan vs Lernayin Artsakh — First League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
FT
1 – 0
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
9/23/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sevan53%
×Draw21%
Lernayin Artsakh25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
2.09
Lernayin Artsakh
1.39

Sevan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sevan
2.59
Lernayin Artsakh
1.74

allows per match

Sevan
1.04
Lernayin Artsakh
1.60

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
75%
Sevan or Lernayin Artsakh
79%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
47%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
32%
Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
88%
Sevan 2+ goals
62%
Sevan 3+ goals
34%
Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
75%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
40%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
68%
Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.09

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sevan scores more
53%
level
21%
Lernayin Artsakh scores more
25%

Sevan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sevan 1–0 Lernayin Artsakh

Sevan beat Lernayin Artsakh 1-0 in First League on September 23, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.