Sestao River vs Athletic Club — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Athletic Club score first in only 32% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Sestao River27%Athletic Club52%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Athletic Club creates 44% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sestao River ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sestao River at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches
Athletic Club away — creates 2.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sestao River attack 2.00 + Athletic Club defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42
Athletic Club attack 2.83 + Sestao River defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Athletic Club at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 35% of Athletic Club’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Sestao River host Athletic Club on Wednesday, 22 July 2026 at 17:30. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Sestao River face Athletic Club (Friendlies Clubs)
Friendlies Clubs returns with Sestao River hosting Athletic Club. Match starts July 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.