Servette FC 3–1 Lausanne: Result & Stats

Servette FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lausanne

3/10/2024

Super League · Round 27Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Servette FC50%

×Draw24%

Lausanne26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette FCExpected goals in this matchLausanne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.17

Servette FC

1.72

Lausanne

1.17

Servette FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 92 away

1.70

creates per match

1.09

1.25

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Servette FC

1.70

Lausanne

1.09

allows per match

Servette FC

1.25

Lausanne

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Servette FC+0.00on par

Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

Lausanne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw

74%

Servette FC or Lausanne

76%

Draw or Lausanne

50%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+

27%

Lausanne wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals

82%

Servette FC 2+ goals

51%

Servette FC 3+ goals

25%

Lausanne 1+ goals

69%

Lausanne 2+ goals

33%

Lausanne 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)

66%

Lausanne (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 129 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.70 + Lausanne defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.72

Lausanne attack 1.09 + Servette FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Servette FC scores more

50%

level

24%

Lausanne scores more

26%

Servette FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff