Servette FC 0–6 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Servette FC

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

FC Basel 1893

B. Kololli 87'

M. Šotiček 81'

A. Ajeti 76', 63'

B. Traoré 46'

T. Barry 37'

8/11/2024

Super League · Round 4Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Servette FC38%

×Draw24%

FC Basel 189338%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette FCExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

Servette FC

1.59

FC Basel 1893

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.45

creates per match

1.68

1.50

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Servette FC

1.45

FC Basel 1893

1.68

allows per match

Servette FC

1.50

FC Basel 1893

1.74

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Servette FC+0.16scores more

FC Basel 1893+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw

62%

Servette FC or FC Basel 1893

76%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

62%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+

19%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals

80%

Servette FC 2+ goals

47%

Servette FC 3+ goals

21%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

80%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

47%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)

50%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.74 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.45 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.68 + Servette FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Servette FC scores more

38%

level

24%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

38%

Servette FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Ajeti

FC Basel 1893 · F

9.2

Match Events

37'

46'

63'

66'

67'

T. Ouattara← D. Kutesa

67'

J. von Moos← M. Stevanović

67'

D. Douline← T. Cognat

67'

B. Fink← L. Leroy

69'

Jonas Adjei Adjetey

74'

Finn van Breemen

75'

M. Šotiček← T. Barry

76'

U. Simbakoli← E. Crivelli

76'

A. Ajeti

81'

M. Šotiček↳ B. Fink

82'

T. Magnin← J. Guillemenot

85'

B. Kololli← A. Ajeti

85'

T. Xhaka← L. Avdullahu

87'

B. Kololli↳ M. Šotiček

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ServetteFC

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots20

1.70Expected Goals (xG)3.25

11Corners5

7Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots20

7On Target10

9Off Target6

4Blocked4

10Inside Box18

10Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

429Total Passes371

357Accurate Passes305

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2