Servette FC 3–3 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Servette FC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

FC Basel 1893

M. Stevanović 81'

H. Touati 73'

C. Bedia 41'

Z. Amdouni 88', 43'

W. Burger 69'

5/25/2023

Super League · Round 35Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Servette FC38%

×Draw24%

FC Basel 189338%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette FCExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

Servette FC

1.59

FC Basel 1893

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.45

creates per match

1.68

1.50

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Servette FC

1.45

FC Basel 1893

1.68

allows per match

Servette FC

1.50

FC Basel 1893

1.74

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Servette FC+0.16scores more

FC Basel 1893+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw

62%

Servette FC or FC Basel 1893

76%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

62%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+

19%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals

80%

Servette FC 2+ goals

47%

Servette FC 3+ goals

21%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

80%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

47%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)

50%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.74 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.45 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.68 + Servette FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Servette FC scores more

38%

level

24%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

38%

Servette FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Stevanović

Servette FC · M

9.7

Match Events

23'

Miroslav Stevanović

41'

C. Bedia↳ M. Stevanović

43'

45+1'

61'

62'

63'

H. Touati← P. Pflücke

69'

A. Zeqiri← J. Augustin

69'

W. Burger↳ F. Frei

73'

H. Touati↳ M. Stevanović

79'

E. Crivelli← C. Bedia

79'

S. Diba← T. Cognat

81'

M. Stevanović↳ G. Clichy

86'

Enzo Crivelli

87'

Sergio López← L. Millar

87'

B. Fink← D. Males

88'

Z. Amdouni

90'

Hussayn Touati

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ServetteFC

Overview

46%Possession54%

18Total Shots17

7Corners4

11Fouls5

Shots

18Total Shots17

6On Target6

8Off Target6

4Blocked5

14Inside Box12

4Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

328Total Passes402

269Accurate Passes348

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls5

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Super League: Servette FC 3–3 FC Basel 1893

Servette FC and FC Basel 1893 drew 3-3 in Super League on May 25, 2023.

Goals: C. Bedia (41'), Z. Amdouni (43', 88'), W. Burger (69'), H. Touati (73'), M. Stevanović (81').

FC Basel 1893 controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Lancy.

Servette FC vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League: Servette FC 3–3 FC Basel 1893