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Servette FC vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

Servette FC
Servette FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
11/23/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Servette FC40%
×Draw24%
FC Basel 189336%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette FC
1.59
FC Basel 1893
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Servette FC
1.44
FC Basel 1893
1.50

allows per match

Servette FC
1.48
FC Basel 1893
1.74

finishing

Servette FC+0.09on par
FC Basel 1893+0.03on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw
64%
Servette FC or FC Basel 1893
76%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
60%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+
20%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals
80%
Servette FC 2+ goals
47%
Servette FC 3+ goals
21%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
77%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
44%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)
53%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.48 · 19 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.44 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.50 + Servette FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Servette FC scores more
40%
level
24%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
36%

Servette FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Servette FC 2–0 FC Basel 1893

Servette FC beat FC Basel 1893 2-0 in Super League on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Carouge.