Servette FC 0–1 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

Servette FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

BSC Young Boys

5/20/2024

Super League · Championship Round - 4Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Servette FC43%

×Draw25%

BSC Young Boys32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette FCExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.29

Servette FC

1.52

BSC Young Boys

1.29

Servette FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.19

creates per match

1.15

1.43

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Servette FC

1.19

BSC Young Boys

1.15

allows per match

Servette FC

1.43

BSC Young Boys

1.86

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.60scores more than expected

finishing

Servette FC+0.31scores more

BSC Young Boys+0.60scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw

68%

Servette FC or BSC Young Boys

75%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

57%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+

21%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals

78%

Servette FC 2+ goals

45%

Servette FC 3+ goals

20%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

72%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

37%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)

57%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.19 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 + Servette FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Servette FC scores more

43%

level

25%

BSC Young Boys scores more

32%

Servette FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff