Servette FC 3–0 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

Servette FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BSC Young Boys

S. Wüthrich 73'

V. Taşar 63', 61'

11/3/2019

Super League · Round 13Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Servette FC39%

×Draw25%

BSC Young Boys36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette FCExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.38

Servette FC

1.46

BSC Young Boys

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.44

creates per match

1.28

1.48

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Servette FC

1.44

BSC Young Boys

1.28

allows per match

Servette FC

1.48

BSC Young Boys

1.49

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Servette FC+0.09on par

BSC Young Boys+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw

64%

Servette FC or BSC Young Boys

75%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

61%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+

19%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals

77%

Servette FC 2+ goals

43%

Servette FC 3+ goals

18%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

75%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

40%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)

52%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.48 · 19 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.44 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

BSC Young Boys attack 1.28 + Servette FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Servette FC scores more

39%

level

25%

BSC Young Boys scores more

36%

Servette FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Wüthrich

Servette FC · M

9.0

Match Events

32'

35'

37'

45'

61'

63'

66'

M. Spielmann← S. Janko

70'

Timothé Cognat

70'

Cedric Zesiger

73'

S. Wüthrich↳ T. Cognat

75'

R. Azevedo← S. Wüthrich

80'

B. Cespedes← V. Taşar

80'

F. Mambimbi← R. Assalé

81'

Ricardo Azevedo

86'

Mychell Chagas← G. Kyei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ServetteBSC

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots11

3Corners4

14Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots11

5On Target3

7Off Target6

4Blocked2

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

373Total Passes363

237Accurate Passes214

64%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1