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Sertãozinho U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
Preview
18:00
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
9/5/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
52%
Ferroviária U20
model favours
24%25%52%

Sertãozinho U20 and Ferroviária U20 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sertãozinho U2024%
×Draw25%
Ferroviária U2052%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertãozinho U20
1.02
Ferroviária U20
1.63

Ferroviária U20 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sertãozinho U20
0.95
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

Sertãozinho U20
1.55
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertãozinho U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sertãozinho U20 or draw
48%
Sertãozinho U20 or Ferroviária U20
75%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
76%

Winning margin

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
9%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
64%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
27%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
8%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
80%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
48%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
32%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertãozinho U20 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertãozinho U20 attack 0.95 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sertãozinho U20 scores more
24%
level
25%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
52%

Ferroviária U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
DWLDW
U20
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sertãozinho U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Match Preview

Sertãozinho U20 face Ferroviária U20 on September 5, 2026 in this Paulista - U20 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.