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Sertãozinho U20 vs América-SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
Preview
18:00
América-SP U20
América-SP U20
7/25/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 8
57%
Sertãozinho U20
model favours
57%22%21%

Sertãozinho U20 sit 22, América-SP U20 35 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sertãozinho U2057%
×Draw22%
América-SP U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertãozinho U20
1.98
América-SP U20
1.11

Sertãozinho U20 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sertãozinho U20
0.95
América-SP U20
0.67

allows per match

Sertãozinho U20
1.55
América-SP U20
3.00

finishing

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par
América-SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertãozinho U20 ↓

América-SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sertãozinho U20 or draw
79%
Sertãozinho U20 or América-SP U20
78%
Draw or América-SP U20
43%

Winning margin

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
34%
América-SP U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
86%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
59%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
31%
América-SP U20 1+ goals
67%
América-SP U20 2+ goals
30%
América-SP U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
73%
América-SP U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertãozinho U20 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

América-SP U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertãozinho U20 attack 0.95 + América-SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

América-SP U20 attack 0.67 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sertãozinho U20 scores more
57%
level
22%
América-SP U20 scores more
21%

Sertãozinho U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sertãozinho U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sertãozinho U20 and América-SP U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DWLDW
U20
LWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sertãozinho U20 host América-SP U20

July 25, 2026: Sertãozinho U20 take on América-SP U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.