Sertanense 0–0 Alcains: Result & Stats

Sertanense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alcains

11/29/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 7Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sertanense59%

×Draw24%

Alcains17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SertanenseExpected goals in this matchAlcains

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.75

Sertanense

1.65

Alcains

0.75

Sertanense creates 120% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.09

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Sertanense

1.09

Alcains

0.50

allows per match

Sertanense

1.00

Alcains

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par

Alcains+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

Alcains →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw

83%

Sertanense or Alcains

76%

Draw or Alcains

41%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+

32%

Alcains wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals

81%

Sertanense 2+ goals

49%

Sertanense 3+ goals

23%

Alcains 1+ goals

53%

Alcains 2+ goals

17%

Alcains 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)

78%

Alcains (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Alcains away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 1.09 + Alcains defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Alcains attack 0.50 + Sertanense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sertanense scores more

59%

level

24%

Alcains scores more

17%

Sertanense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sertanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff