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Sereď vs Podkonice — 3. liga - West 2020

Sereď
Sereď
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Podkonice
Podkonice
9/3/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 5Štadión Sereď

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sereď62%
×Draw21%
Podkonice17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sereď
2.08
Podkonice
0.99

Sereď creates 110% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sereď
2.40
Podkonice
1.18

allows per match

Sereď
0.80
Podkonice
1.76

finishing

Sereď+0.00on par
Podkonice+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sereď ↓

Podkonice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sereď or draw
83%
Sereď or Podkonice
79%
Draw or Podkonice
38%

Winning margin

Sereď wins by 2+
38%
Podkonice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sereď 1+ goals
87%
Sereď 2+ goals
61%
Sereď 3+ goals
34%
Podkonice 1+ goals
63%
Podkonice 2+ goals
26%
Podkonice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sereď (draw refunded)
78%
Podkonice (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sereď at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Podkonice away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sereď attack 2.40 + Podkonice defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.08

Podkonice attack 1.18 + Sereď defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sereď scores more
62%
level
21%
Podkonice scores more
17%

Sereď at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Sereď 1–1 Podkonice

Sereď and Podkonice drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Sereď in Sereď.