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Septemvri Sofia vs Beroe — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
FT
0 – 2
Beroe
Beroe
7/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Septemvri Sofia34%
×Draw23%
Beroe43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia
1.52
Beroe
1.73

Beroe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia
1.25
Beroe
1.80

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia
1.67
Beroe
1.80

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw
57%
Septemvri Sofia or Beroe
77%
Draw or Beroe
66%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
16%
Beroe wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
78%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
45%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
20%
Beroe 1+ goals
82%
Beroe 2+ goals
52%
Beroe 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
44%
Beroe (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Beroe away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.25 + Beroe defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Beroe attack 1.80 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more
34%
level
23%
Beroe scores more
43%

Beroe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Sofia vs Beroe

Beroe beat Septemvri Sofia 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dragalevtsi in Sofia.