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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Preview
16:00
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
10/24/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 13Stadionul Sepsi
Big match
38%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
model favours
38%27%34%

Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe38%
×Draw27%
Universitatea Craiova34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.27
Universitatea Craiova
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 155 away

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.42
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.00
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw
66%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or Universitatea Craiova
73%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
62%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
17%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
72%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
36%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
14%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
70%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
33%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
53%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.42 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
38%
level
27%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
34%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Universitatea Craiova have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gheorghe
DWWDL
Craiova
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova — Match Preview

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe face Universitatea Craiova on October 24, 2026 in this Liga I fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe host Universitatea Craiova at Stadionul Sepsi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.