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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2018

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
3/4/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 30Arena Sepsi OSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe45%
×Draw27%
U Craiova 194828%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.36
U Craiova 1948
1.01

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 35% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 59 away

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.42
U Craiova 1948
1.02

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.00
U Craiova 1948
1.31

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw
72%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or U Craiova 1948
73%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
55%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
21%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
74%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
39%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
16%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
64%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
27%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
62%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.42 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
45%
level
27%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–1 U Craiova 1948

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe beat U Craiova 1948 2-1 in Liga I on March 4, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Sepsi OSK in Sfântu Gheorghe.