Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs CS Universitatea Craiova

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CS Universitatea Craiova

P. Šafranko 8'

11/30/2019

Liga I · Round 18Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe38%

×Draw27%

CS Universitatea Craiova34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheExpected goals in this matchCS Universitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.19

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.27

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 155 away

1.42

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.42

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.00

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

CS Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw

66%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or CS Universitatea Craiova

73%

Draw or CS Universitatea Craiova

62%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

17%

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

72%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

36%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

14%

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

70%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

33%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

53%

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

CS Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.42 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

38%

level

27%

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

34%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

29'

34'

50'

55'

55'

59'

62'

P. Gál-Andrezly← N. Carnat

70'

75'

78'

78'

87'

G. Karanović← P. Šafranko

90'

Roland Niczuly

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SepsiCS

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots12

5Corners2

19Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots12

4On Target3

3Off Target9

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls8

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides4

Liga I: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 CS Universitatea Craiova

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe beat CS Universitatea Craiova 1-0 in Liga I on November 30, 2019.

Goals: P. Šafranko (8').

CS Universitatea Craiova controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sfântu Gheorghe.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs CS Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Liga I: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 CS Universitatea Craiova