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Seoul W vs Suwon FMC W — WK-League 2026

Seoul W
Seoul W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Suwon FMC W
Suwon FMC W
5/19/2023WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 12Sangam Auxiliary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Seoul W33%
×Draw25%
Suwon FMC W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seoul W
1.34
Suwon FMC W
1.55

Suwon FMC W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 89 away

creates per match

Seoul W
1.47
Suwon FMC W
1.61

allows per match

Seoul W
1.49
Suwon FMC W
1.22

finishing

Seoul W+0.00on par
Suwon FMC W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seoul W ↓

Suwon FMC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Seoul W or draw
58%
Seoul W or Suwon FMC W
75%
Draw or Suwon FMC W
67%

Winning margin

Seoul W wins by 2+
15%
Suwon FMC W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Seoul W 1+ goals
74%
Seoul W 2+ goals
39%
Seoul W 3+ goals
15%
Suwon FMC W 1+ goals
79%
Suwon FMC W 2+ goals
46%
Suwon FMC W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Seoul W (draw refunded)
44%
Suwon FMC W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seoul W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Suwon FMC W away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seoul W attack 1.47 + Suwon FMC W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Suwon FMC W attack 1.61 + Seoul W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Seoul W scores more
33%
level
25%
Suwon FMC W scores more
42%

Suwon FMC W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Suwon FMC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seoul W vs Suwon FMC W

Seoul W beat Suwon FMC W 2-0 in WK-League on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sangam Auxiliary Stadium in Seoul.