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Seoul W vs Boeun Sangmu W — WK-League 2026

Seoul W
Seoul W
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Boeun Sangmu W
Boeun Sangmu W
4/14/2023WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 4Sangam Auxiliary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Seoul W46%
×Draw25%
Boeun Sangmu W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seoul W
1.58
Boeun Sangmu W
1.22

Seoul W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 77 away

creates per match

Seoul W
1.47
Boeun Sangmu W
0.95

allows per match

Seoul W
1.49
Boeun Sangmu W
1.70

finishing

Seoul W+0.00on par
Boeun Sangmu W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seoul W ↓

Boeun Sangmu W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Seoul W or draw
71%
Seoul W or Boeun Sangmu W
75%
Draw or Boeun Sangmu W
54%

Winning margin

Seoul W wins by 2+
23%
Boeun Sangmu W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Seoul W 1+ goals
79%
Seoul W 2+ goals
47%
Seoul W 3+ goals
21%
Boeun Sangmu W 1+ goals
70%
Boeun Sangmu W 2+ goals
34%
Boeun Sangmu W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Seoul W (draw refunded)
61%
Boeun Sangmu W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seoul W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Boeun Sangmu W away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.70 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seoul W attack 1.47 + Boeun Sangmu W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Boeun Sangmu W attack 0.95 + Seoul W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Seoul W scores more
46%
level
25%
Boeun Sangmu W scores more
29%

Seoul W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Seoul W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seoul W vs Boeun Sangmu W

Seoul W and Boeun Sangmu W drew 3-3 in WK-League on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Sangam Auxiliary Stadium in Seoul.