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Seosan Pioneer vs Geoje Citizen — K4 League 2026

Seosan Pioneer
Seosan Pioneer
Preview
08:00
Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
9/12/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 22
55%
Geoje Citizen
model favours
24%22%55%
1–2
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Seosan Pioneer24%
×Draw22%
Geoje Citizen55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seosan Pioneer
1.26
Geoje Citizen
2.01

Geoje Citizen creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Seosan Pioneer
1.40
Geoje Citizen
1.63

allows per match

Seosan Pioneer
2.40
Geoje Citizen
1.13

finishing

Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par
Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seosan Pioneer ↓

Geoje Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Seosan Pioneer or draw
45%
Seosan Pioneer or Geoje Citizen
78%
Draw or Geoje Citizen
76%

Winning margin

Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+
10%
Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals
72%
Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals
36%
Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals
13%
Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
87%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
59%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)
30%
Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seosan Pioneer at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.40 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Geoje Citizen attack 1.63 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Seosan Pioneer scores more
24%
level
22%
Geoje Citizen scores more
55%

Geoje Citizen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pioneer
WLLLL
Citizen
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Seosan Pioneer host Geoje Citizen

September 12, 2026: Seosan Pioneer take on Geoje Citizen in K4 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.