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Senja vs Eidsvold — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Senja
Senja
PST
13:00
Eidsvold
Eidsvold
6/6/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Senja Storhall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Senja42%
×Draw23%
Eidsvold35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senja
1.75
Eidsvold
1.57

Senja creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Senja
1.26
Eidsvold
1.35

allows per match

Senja
1.79
Eidsvold
2.25

finishing

Senja+0.00on par
Eidsvold+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senja ↓

Eidsvold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Senja or draw
65%
Senja or Eidsvold
77%
Draw or Eidsvold
58%

Winning margin

Senja wins by 2+
22%
Eidsvold wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Senja 1+ goals
83%
Senja 2+ goals
52%
Senja 3+ goals
25%
Eidsvold 1+ goals
79%
Eidsvold 2+ goals
46%
Eidsvold 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Senja (draw refunded)
55%
Eidsvold (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senja at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Eidsvold away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senja attack 1.26 + Eidsvold defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Eidsvold attack 1.35 + Senja defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Senja scores more
42%
level
23%
Eidsvold scores more
35%

Senja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Senja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Senja vs Eidsvold — Match Preview

Senja face Eidsvold on June 6, 2021 in this 2. Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Senja host Eidsvold at Senja Storhall.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.