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Selangor vs Penang — League #278 2026

Selangor
Selangor
Preview
12:15
Penang
Penang
10/17/2026League #278League #278 · Round 5MBPJ Stadium
61%
Selangor
model favours
61%20%18%

Selangor and Penang have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Selangor61%
×Draw20%
Penang18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selangor
2.11
Penang
1.06

Selangor creates 99% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 24 away

creates per match

Selangor
1.97
Penang
1.38

allows per match

Selangor
0.75
Penang
2.25

finishing

Selangor+0.00on par
Penang+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor ↓

Penang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Selangor or draw
82%
Selangor or Penang
80%
Draw or Penang
39%

Winning margin

Selangor wins by 2+
38%
Penang wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Selangor 1+ goals
88%
Selangor 2+ goals
62%
Selangor 3+ goals
35%
Penang 1+ goals
65%
Penang 2+ goals
29%
Penang 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Selangor (draw refunded)
77%
Penang (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selangor at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Penang away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selangor attack 1.97 + Penang defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.11

Penang attack 1.38 + Selangor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Selangor scores more
61%
level
20%
Penang scores more
18%

Selangor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Selangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Selangor
LLWWW
Penang
WDDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Selangor vs Penang — Match Preview

Selangor face Penang on October 17, 2026 in this League #278 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Selangor host Penang at MBPJ Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.