Sekhukhune United 3–2 Marumo Gallants

Sekhukhune United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Marumo Gallants

V. Letsoalo 78', 49'

C. Ohizu 28'

S. Sibeko 90+4'

C. Ngema 29'

1/3/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 12Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sekhukhune United48%

×Draw29%

Marumo Gallants23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sekhukhune UnitedExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.77

Sekhukhune United

1.26

Marumo Gallants

0.77

Sekhukhune United creates 64% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 76 away

1.07

creates per match

0.72

0.81

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Sekhukhune United

1.07

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

Sekhukhune United

0.81

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sekhukhune United+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekhukhune United ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sekhukhune United or draw

77%

Sekhukhune United or Marumo Gallants

71%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

52%

Winning margin

Sekhukhune United wins by 2+

22%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sekhukhune United 1+ goals

72%

Sekhukhune United 2+ goals

36%

Sekhukhune United 3+ goals

13%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

54%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

18%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sekhukhune United (draw refunded)

68%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekhukhune United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.81 · 74 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekhukhune United attack 1.07 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Sekhukhune United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sekhukhune United scores more

48%

level

29%

Marumo Gallants scores more

23%

Sekhukhune United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sekhukhune United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

C. Ohizu

29'

C. Ngema↳ M. Mphambaniso

38'

Tshepo Gumede

46'

E. Mokwana← S. Shai

46'

S. Ntiya-Ntiya← P. Zulu

49'

V. Letsoalo↳ E. Mokwana

56'

S. Seabi← V. Mncube

57'

G. Mashikinya← R. Kabwe

61'

J. Malongoane← L. Nku

72'

K. Mosiatlhaga← C. Ohizu

75'

Toaster Nsabata

78'

V. Letsoalo↳ G. Mashikinya

81'

S. Sibeko← K. Otladisa

81'

C. Soumaro← S. Mdlinzo

84'

D. Manaka← A. Nkili

90+4'

S. Sibeko↳ C. Soumaro

Shots

Statistics

SekhukhuneMarumo

Overview

3Total Shots1

0Corners0

3Fouls1

Shots

3Total Shots1

3On Target1

Discipline

3Fouls1

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0