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Sejong SA vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang — K4 League 2026

Sejong SA
Sejong SA
Preview
10:00
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
8/30/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 20
44%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
model favours
33%23%44%
1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sejong SA33%
×Draw23%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sejong SA
1.51
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.76

Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sejong SA
1.88
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
2.14

allows per match

Sejong SA
1.38
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.14

finishing

Sejong SA+0.00on par
Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sejong SA ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sejong SA or draw
56%
Sejong SA or Jungnang Chorus Mustang
77%
Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang
67%

Winning margin

Sejong SA wins by 2+
16%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sejong SA 1+ goals
78%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
44%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
19%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals
83%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals
52%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sejong SA (draw refunded)
43%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sejong SA at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sejong SA attack 1.88 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 2.14 + Sejong SA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sejong SA scores more
33%
level
23%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more
44%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
SA
WDLWW
Mustang
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sejong SA face Jungnang Chorus Mustang (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Sejong SA hosting Jungnang Chorus Mustang. Match starts August 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.