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Sebeta Kenema vs Fasil Ketema — Premier League 2019

Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
FT
3 – 3
Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
12/29/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Addis Ababa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sebeta Kenema29%
×Draw30%
Fasil Ketema42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sebeta Kenema
0.92
Fasil Ketema
1.18

Fasil Ketema creates 28% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sebeta Kenema
0.94
Fasil Ketema
1.08

allows per match

Sebeta Kenema
1.28
Fasil Ketema
0.89

finishing

Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par
Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sebeta Kenema ↓

Fasil Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sebeta Kenema or draw
58%
Sebeta Kenema or Fasil Ketema
70%
Draw or Fasil Ketema
71%

Winning margin

Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
10%
Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
60%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
23%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
7%
Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
69%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
33%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
41%
Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sebeta Kenema at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sebeta Kenema attack 0.94 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sebeta Kenema scores more
29%
level
30%
Fasil Ketema scores more
42%

Fasil Ketema at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sebeta Kenema 3–3 Fasil Ketema

Sebeta Kenema and Fasil Ketema drew 3-3 in Premier League on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at Addis Ababa Stadium in Addis Abeba.